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Look for Biffle to fall out, Busch to slip in
Published Friday, August 14, 2009
After the first 22 races of the 2009 season, there are only six drivers that have pretty much wrapped up a spot in the 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup championship. That leaves four races for six more racers to earn their way in, or fall their way out, of the Chase field.
After last Monday’s race at Watkins Glen, the top six in the points standings did not change, but five of the six drivers in positions seven through 12 changed spots. The points standings among those who could jump in or fall out of contention has really tightened over the last few weeks.
Only 195 points separate Juan Montoya in seventh position and Clint Bowyer in 15th. And given the fact the points difference earned from first to last place in one race is 161 points, it wouldn’t take long for the standings to tighten even more.
Of the current driver sin the top-12, I think one driver falls out and another driver not currently eligible jumps in. Given the remaining races at Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond, I believe that Greg Biffle falls from his current spot in 10th to miss the Chase field.
Biffle runs well at Michigan, the site of this week’s race, but is subpar at the remaining three tracks. If Biffle falls out, then who comes in?
I said last week that Kyle Busch is stronger when he is the hunted instead of the hunter, but I think he is the guy that takes Biffle’s place in the Chase field. Currently 58 points from the final Chase position, Busch will win one of the next four races, most likely at Richmond, and earn the last spot in the Chase.
Whatever happens, the next four races should be fun to watch as teams jockey and take chances to earn a chance to compete for the championship.
One driver that doesn’t have to worry about the pressure that comes with trying to make the Chase is Dale Earnhardt Jr. Clearly the most disappointing and underachieving driver of the 2009 season, Junior would be better off trying to get top-20s and planning for next season.
After having brake issues at Watkins Glen, Junior dropped two more spots in the standings, landing in 25th position. That puts him behind such superstars as A.J. Allemendinger, Casey Mears, rookie Marcos Ambrose, and baby-faced rookie Joey Logano.
Junior has an unbelievable one top-five and three top-10 finishes through the first 22 races. One top-five. That’s unreal for a driver of Junior’s supposed talent. But more incredible is that he is driving for the sport’s best team with the sport’s best equipment. Hendrick’s other three teams are in second, third, and 11th. And the drivers in the top spot, Tony Stewart, and ninth spot, Ryan Newman, are Hendrick cousins and drive Hendrick cars.
So, by my count, that is five drivers in the top 11 and one driver in 25th. What’s wrong with this picture? Heck, Junior’s protégé, Brad Keselowski, has had a better Sprint Cup season, than Junior—in 15 less races. Keselowski has the same number of top-fives, the same number of top-10s, and, most importantly, a win.
Let’s hope the weather holds this weekend and we actually race on raceday at Michigan. Kurt Busch is my pick to win Sunday.
– Jeff Findley is a guest columnist for The Clanton Advertiser. His column appears each Weekend.
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Comments
Posted by kwsrgraves (anonymous) on August 16, 2009 at 11:10 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Good pick for the win, Jeff. As for Kyle, I believe his attitude is akin to George Brett of the Kansas City Royals. Remember the broken toilet incident? Has anyone checked the lavatory in Kyle's motorhome? LOL. Kyle's only saving grace is, if Joe Gibbs enrolls him in counseling, like he did Tony Stewart. Yesterday's little stunt with Brian Vickers was another escalating step to Kyle's self destruction. I really wish Vickers had been standing outside of his car when Kyle made his bantie rooster move. Vickers learned a lesson from Donnie, Bobby, and Cale. He kept his helment on the whole time. A lesson Kyle needs to be taught with a fist or Craftsman wrench.
Posted by REK1138 (anonymous) on August 16, 2009 at 9:33 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Kyle Busch continues to implode. Immaturity, impatience, and a huge ego are doing more damage to his season that blown tires, dropped jacks, or getting dumped ever could. What a shame too, all that talent, but not enough good sense to turn it into a championship run. He's the exact opposite of Jimmy Johnson, a patient, mature driver who knows when to push, knows when to take all a track will give him and not try to take more.
Can't agree with your assessment, Busch is out this season, Brian Vickers is in and unfortunately Mark Martin's tragic slide out of the top 12 continues. Kenseth, Biffle, and Vickers will take the last three chase spots but Vickers will be the only real contender in that group. As I said two weeks ago, this is the Stewart/Johnson show with Montoya/the "other" Busch as the dark horse contenders.
This just isn't Roush's year. Next season however, look for the cat in the hat to put all of his NASCAR mandated FOUR teams in the chase.
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